Is Metro Manila prepared for a major earthquake? Discover the increasing possibility of the ‘Big One’ by 2058 and essential safety measures. Stay informed and ready!

Key Points Summary:

• Phivolcs warns of an increasing possibility of a major earthquake, the “Big One,” striking Metro Manila as 2058 approaches.
• The West Valley Fault, which last moved in 1658, has a recurrence interval of 400 to 600 years.
• Successive earthquakes are normal in the Philippines due to numerous active fault segments and trenches.
• DepEd suspends face-to-face classes in NCR for disinfection and earthquake preparedness.

Manila – The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) has issued a warning that the possibility of a catastrophic earthquake, known as the “Big One,” striking Metro Manila is increasing as the year 2058 draws closer. This alarming prediction has prompted calls for heightened preparedness and awareness among residents and local authorities.

Understanding the ‘Big One’

The “Big One” refers to a potential 7.2 magnitude earthquake that could result from a major movement in the West Valley Fault. This fault line traverses several densely populated areas, including Quezon City, Marikina, Pasig, Makati, Taguig, and Muntinlupa, as well as the provinces of Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna. The impact of such an earthquake could be devastating, making preparation crucial.

Phivolcs Director Teresito Bacolcol explained in an interview that while pinpointing the exact date of the earthquake is impossible, estimates can be made based on the fault’s recurrence interval. The last major movement of the West Valley Fault occurred in 1658. With a recurrence interval of 400 to 600 years, the next major event could occur as early as 2058 or as late as 2258.

The Increasing Probability

“That means that as we get closer to 2058, the probability of this 7.2 recurring is increasing,” Bacolcol stated. He also noted the inherent uncertainties, suggesting the earthquake could happen earlier than predicted. “That’s the reason why we’re saying that we’re right for the Big One,” he added, emphasizing the need for readiness.

Earthquake Preparedness: What You Need to Know

Given the potential for a catastrophic event, preparing for the Big One is essential. Phivolcs recommends several key actions:

1. Consult Hazard Maps: Use the hazardhunter.ph website to identify active faults, potential hazards, and safe evacuation areas in your locality [1].
2. Develop an Emergency Plan: Create a family emergency plan that includes evacuation routes, meeting points, and communication strategies.
3. Prepare a Go-Bag: Assemble a survival kit with essential supplies such as water, non-perishable food, first aid supplies, a flashlight, and a radio.
4. Secure Your Home: Reinforce your home to withstand earthquake forces. Secure heavy furniture, appliances, and hanging objects to prevent them from falling and causing injury.
5. Participate in Drills: Engage in regular earthquake drills to practice safety procedures and familiarize yourself with evacuation routes.

Recent Seismic Activity: A Cause for Concern?

Bacolcol addressed the frequent earthquakes felt across the Philippines, clarifying that these are normal occurrences due to the country’s complex geological setting. The Philippines has 180 active fault segments and six active trenches, resulting in an average of 30 earthquakes daily, most of which are too weak to be felt.

He explained that recent strong earthquakes, such as the magnitude 4.4 quake in La Union (caused by the Philippine Fault), the magnitude 6.9 quake in Cebu (due to the Bogo Bay Fault), the magnitude 5.1 earthquake in Zambales (caused by the Manila Trench), and the magnitude 7.4 earthquake in Davao Oriental (by the Philippine Trench), were all caused by different geological structures.

“Normal lang ito. It’s just that, maraming malalakas na lindol na naramdaman ng mga tao. But everything is normal,” Bacolcol assured, urging the public not to panic but to remain vigilant and prepared.

DepEd Suspends Face-to-Face Classes

In response to the rising concerns, the Department of Education (DepEd) – National Capital Region has suspended face-to-face classes in public schools on October 13 and 14. This suspension aims to provide time for disinfection, sanitation, building inspection, and reinforcement of earthquake preparedness and response procedures.

DepEd – NCR has ordered public schools to implement alternative delivery modalities (ADM), either synchronous or asynchronous, and has encouraged private schools to adopt similar measures.

Marikina City also declared a health break, suspending face-to-face classes in all levels in both public and private schools for the same period. Parañaque City has followed suit, suspending face-to-face classes in public and private schools from elementary to high school, including child development and daycare centers.

Staying Informed and Prepared

The increasing possibility of the “Big One” striking Metro Manila underscores the importance of staying informed and prepared. By understanding the risks, taking proactive measures, and consulting reliable resources, residents can mitigate the potential impact of a major earthquake. As the Philippines continues to face seismic challenges, collective efforts towards preparedness and resilience are crucial for safeguarding lives and communities.

FAQ Section

• Q1: What is the “Big One” earthquake?
• The “Big One” refers to a potential 7.2 magnitude earthquake resulting from a major movement in the West Valley Fault, which could cause catastrophic damage in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces.
• Q2: Why is the “Big One” important?
• The “Big One” is important because it poses a significant threat to the densely populated Metro Manila area. Being prepared can save lives and minimize damage. The Big One is a serious concern for everyone.
• Q3: How does the “Big One” affect people?
• The “Big One” could result in widespread infrastructure damage, casualties, and displacement. It could disrupt essential services and have long-lasting economic and social impacts.
• Q4: What are the latest updates on the “Big One”?
• Phivolcs continues to monitor the West Valley Fault and provide updates on the increasing possibility of a major earthquake. Stay informed through official channels and reliable news sources. The Big One is constantly being monitored.
• Q5: Where can I read more about the “Big One”?
• You can find more information on the Phivolcs website (https://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/)

For the Latest News see source below:

Source Link:

• Possibility of ‘Big One’ quake in Metro Manila increases as 2058 approaches — Phivolcs

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